Saturday, 8 May 2010

Hanged Man

Britain has (thankfully) got into a hung parliament. I have prayed for this for months. Single party rule has created the mess we're in over two parties regimes. They just cannot be trusted to do what they want alone. They will have to be curbed by cooperative working.

Now people are talking about a "moral right to govern" or pointing at a simple majority of numbers, as if Cameron Tory should form a government. Neither are allowed under constitutional law.
Brown is being vilified as he he is wrongfully "clinging on to power." But Brown is not doing anything except his duty according to the law.
My notes record what I have learned of the options.

A simple majority CANNOT be enough to govern. If it were we could have 5 or 6 parties with their numbers clustering together and the one getting 5 more than the others forming a government. Senseless.
Nor can we have a small majority such as Cameron's. The other two parties would band together and block whatever he wanted to do. Again not a runner.

Legally Cameron has no right to form a Government. A simple majority is not an overall majority, otherwise known as a parliamentary majority. That is a majority of over half the total of MPs - that is, 326.
Cameron got less than that so he has no mandate to govern, and no legal position to do so.
He can only do it under an agreement with another party.

Legally Brown has the right to form a Government right now. He doesn't have to wait while Cameron talks to Clegg. He could talk to Clegg himself right now as he has a legally superior right to govern over Cameron. Constitutional rules give him that right as the existing PM.
That's because, if no party gets an overall majority (326 MPs or more) the EXISTING Prime Minister has the right to form a government however s/he can.

That Brown has not forced the issue is very much to his credit. He can have a much needed break while Cameron tries to win Clegg over. Which is vanishingly unlikely as

a) the Tories will not permit a PR referendum.
Unless they felt confident they could rig it by heavy advertising, manipulation of the media (which they could do) they face suicide as a party if PR goes through. Under current voting rules it's twisted to give a Tory majority which they would lose forever under PR.

b) there is a vast gap between Tory and Liberal financial policy. Liberals will never accept hitting the poor and helping the rich. Their policies are the reverse which Tories will never accept either.
Also Cable wont accept less than the Chancellor's job. (Sec to the Treasury as offered by Cable is a powerless place which would simply gag him.)


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